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In Hockey, it Pays to Fight

Like most NHL fans, I'm an unabashed fan of hockey fights and the men who drop their gloves to protect their more skilled teammates. In their guts, most fans know that if it wasn't for players like Donald Brashear and Brian McGrattan, skaters like Dany Heatley and Alex Ovechkin wouldn't have nearly as much room to dazzle us the way they do.

Now, there's solid empirical evidence to back it up. In a study published by Ruhr Economic Papers, Blood Money: Incentives for Violence in NHL Hockey, John P. Haisken-DeNew and Matthias Vorell found a positive correlation between fighting and winning in the NHL.

Here's how The Atlantic saw the paper:
After analyzing league statistics-including penalty minutes, goals scored, and salary figures-the authors determined that strategic fighting can improve a team's playoff chances, and that players possessing the unique skills of an enforcer are duly rewarded for their efforts.

[...]

While a player earns a "wage premium" of $10,925 when he assists on a goal, they calculated, he earns $18,135 for winning a fight and $11,993 even for losing a fight.
According to the researchers, the most effective way to curb fighting in hockey would be to levy a $36,000 fine on each team per fight, and then apply the fine against the team's salary cap. I'm sure that idea would give Anaheim GM Brian Burke a sever case of agita.

Stefan Legein Just Retired ... Or Did He?

Stefan Legein, a 2007 second round draft pick of the Columbus Blue Jackets who is just 19 has retired. Or has he?

The kid -- a promising prospect on a lot of levels -- is coming off a season where he helped Canada win a World Junior championship. But as surprising as this news might be, the way that news made it online might be just as interesting.

The first online report of Legein's retirement came from Aaron Portzline at Puck-Rakers, the Blue Jackets blog at the Columbus Dispatch. But when it came to nailing down the story, Portzline had an assist from a local blogger:
This story is shocking on so many different levels. Earlier today, I got an email from a Puck-Rakers reader, Bethany, of Bethany's Hockey Rants. Actually, it was a "forward" of an email she got from an anonymous person in Ontario saying Legein had retired.

After a slew of phone calls to sources throughout the NHL, I finally got somebody to tell be [sic] off the record that's it true. Just a few minutes ago, Blue Jackets general manager Scott Howson confirmed it.

Of course, the next question has to be: Why? Why would a kid who had a pretty good shot at eventually making his way to the NHL decide to walk away from it all? From all indications, Legein didn't do much of anything to telegraph his punch.

Revenue Disaster for the NHL?

Following up on my post from last week about the US Dollar's rise potentially affecting the salary cap, Tom Benjamin had a short post today about this issue. On the subject of revenues vs. the cap Tom B. has this to say:
If revenues actually do fall we are into uncharted waters, but the cap formula includes an automatic 5% increase. As a result revenues have to fall a lot to actually drop the salary cap. A zero increase in the cap is probably my worst case scenario. I don't think that would cause significant problems. It would, however, help the Russian league compete for players.
His point about the Russian competition is an excellent one, especially in light of Alexander Radulov's recent statements. Given that I believe there is a paradigm shift in world finance underway with the power-base shifting eastward towards Russia, China and the Arab world any drop in revenues for the NHL would be yet another data point in favor of that analysis, a potential nail in the coffin of the NHL's dominance over the hockey world.

But, that said, I have to take umbrage with Tom's assertion that it would take a large drop in revenues to drop the cap. On the contrary, given what we know about the league's revenues last year, the $56.7 million salary cap for this season includes the 5% kicker, so any drop in revenue would cause the cap to drop. Unless the numbers being bandied about are way off ($2.56 billion), the only way for the cap to be $56.7 million was if the 5% kicker was added to the cap for 2008-09. If the NHLPA waived the 5% increase, then the cap would have been set at approximately $54 million. If I'm wrong about this, please someone correct me.

Now, the likelihood of league revenues contracting is subject to much debate, and the more I discuss this the less convinced I am that revenues are likely to drop a lot. As I pointed out last week, even in a revenue neutral setting the current spending on salaries means that the escrow payments would stay with the teams as that equals ~59% of revenues where the players are due only 56.53%. This does not bode well for next year's extension of the CBA.

Redden to Arrive in NYC with New Wife

It's been a huge Summer for Wade Redden. First, he signed a mega-bucks deal to leave Ottawa and join the New York Rangers. And now, to top things off, he's gone off and gotten himself married. And while most of us didn't snag an invite to the intimate affair in Kelowna, British Colombia, two Vancouver-based wedding photographers are sharing a few shots from the happy couple's wedding album.

Here's how Chris+Lynn Photographers set it up:
What can we say about Danica & Wade? She is fun, fiesty, and full of an adventurous spirit. He is calm, down-to-earth, and has a quiet strength about him. As a couple, they are simply beautiful together - in the laughter they share, the tenderness in their words, and the pure love with which they look at each other.
Awwww. I think it's safe to say that Mr. Redden is an incredibly lucky guy, if you know what I mean.

After all, as Sean Avery reminded us a few weeks back, New York can be an awfully lonely place for an athlete when things aren't going well. It's good that Wade won't be making the trip by himself.

Bodog Makes Wings and Pens Early Cup Favorites



Yes, I know it's August.

And yes, I know we're still about a month out before training camp.

Still, if The Hockey News can put most of its hockey yearbook to bed complete with predictions in August, what's the harm in checking in with people who actually have some skin in the game if they get things wrong? In particular, I'm talking about the folks at Bodog who have just published odds for winning the conference championships and the Stanley Cup Finals for the 2008-09 NHL season.

Up top, there's not much of a surprise, as Bodog has installed the Red Wings (10-3) and the Penguins (5-2 6-1), as co-favorites in their respective conferences -- see those odds after the jump. Rounding out the top 10 are San Jose (9-1), Montreal (10-1), Anaheim and the Rangers (12-1), Washington (15-1), New Jersey (16-1), Ottawa (16-1), Chicago, Dallas and Philadelphia (18-1).

For those of you looking to lay your money on a long shot, Atlanta and Los Angeles are at the bottom of the board at 100-1, followed by Toronto (75-1) and Columbus (65-1). For a complete list of odds on the Stanley Cup as well as the winners of both the Eastern and Western Conference, look after the jump.

Reading the KHL Tea Leaves

It's been an interesting few days in the continuing standoff between the National Hockey League and Russia's Kontinental Hockey League. Let's recap some events:
  • On a Summer Saturday when hardly anyone would be paying attention, the folks running the KHL thought it was important for their North American-based press service to issue a news release announcing that the league was "unilaterally" extending its moratorium on signing NHL players, with the proviso that it would be terminated if and when the NHL violated the agreement.
  • On Monday evening, the Globe and Mail reported that Radulov's KHL team, Salavat Ufa, had made a compensation offer in exchange for the winger, one that the NHL rejected out of hand. Further, the NHL reiterated its position that there would be no international transfer agreement until Radulov's contract with Nashville was honored.
So what are we to deduce from the recent goings on?

Yet Another Hilarious Ovechkin Video

Thanks once again to Tuvanhillbilly for unearthing another inexplicable video starring Alex Ovechkin. Last week it was an Ovechkin appearance plugging his search for a wife, and now we have evidence of his participation in some bizarre Russian game show:



Thanks to Puck Daddy for the pointer.

'Canes Bloggers Miss Their DeCock

You can say what you want about hockey in Raleigh, but without question the team has one of the better beat writers in the sport covering the local team for The News & Observer.

Make that "the team had one of the better beat writers in the sport." You see, Luke DeCock has graduated from his duties covering the 'Canes to the vaunted position of "columnist."

Good for Luke. Bad for 'Canes fans. Or at least so say the bloggers.

Here, for example, is the reaction over at red & black hockey from a post entitled "N&O takes two steps backwards":
In [DeCock's] place, the N&O has slotted former NC State Wolfpack beat writer Chip Alexander, who admits that he doesn't know a thing about hockey. This is a huge, huge mistake. There are other writers on the staff (I'm specifically looking at Lorenzo Perez) who are far more capable....

If I were a Raleighite and/or a subscriber to the print edition of the N&O, I would angrily cancel my subscription to the paper.
People still subscribe to newspapers?

But the reaction of the day comes from The Acid Queen, who offers this typically restrained musing on the change:
[Alexander's] first post to Lord Stanley's Blog where he bragged about knowing the ACC and NCSU better than Luke has not exactly won friends and influenced people either. I mean, really–LSB is a hockey blog. WHO CARES ABOUT THE ACC OR STATE (unless you're talking about their damn fine hockey club), ya freakin' toolbox?
Welcome to the beat and the hockey blogosphere, Chip! Keep your head up -- it's rough out there.

Fan Rumor of the Month: Gaborik to Buffalo

While getting re-acquainted with my favorite hockey blogs of yore in a vain attempt to catch up on the great work being done out there in the time I was away from the world I came across this recent post from D-Lee at RedBlackHockey about the rumors floating around Minnesota's Marian Gaborik. For you 'Canes fans in the audience give it a perusal. But in that post he linked to something even more ridiculous, an obvious fan article at BleacherReport trying to make the case for how the Sabres would be trading a premier player like Gaborik for spare parts like Maxim Afinogenov and Tim Connolly/Ales Kotalik. All protests to his making this stuff up out of thin air aside, Andrew Mason makes the following Eklund-esque pitch:
The Sabres, on the other hand, have plenty of cap space. They currently have nine million dollars free as of today which is a good chunk of change. They can easily sign Gaborik to a long-term deal for whatever he wants-especially if they trade Max plus either Kotalik or Connolly, which would free up an extra $5.23-6.23 million.
No way does Darth Regier trade $6 million in salary to add $7.5 million, which is what Gaborik's payout will be this year (No, this was not a front-loaded contract, as it should have been). And, while the Sabres may have a bit of cap space to work with this season they are, as of the Numminen signing, $2 million over their much-maligned personal cap of $50 million. Regier will try to get value for Max and if none is available he'll hope for a great contract season and bid him a fond farewell at the end of it.

Trading for Gaborik doesn't address the lack of center depth on this team, which wouldn't be an issue if Tim(may!) Connolly wasn't one hit away from mopping floors at a hospital... on the graveyard shift. Further stretching the feasibility of this idea is the need to extend of home-grown RW sniper Jason Pominville, who is going to cost them a pretty penny (north of $4 million for 5-6 years if they're lucky). Regier is going to be loyal to the kids he's helped groom from within. There's no way he pushes Pominville out the door to take on Gaborik, unless the Wild are paying part of the salary, which is not allowed under this CBA.

Lastly, I just don't see Regier trading one guy who can't perform in the playoffs for another at twice the price. So, in my mind this one gets a big E5 and a double helping of Mediterranean Sea Salt.

Ta,

The Islanders Will Give You Free Tickets -- if They Win



The Islanders' marketing department is easily one of the most creative in the league, if not in all of sports. They brought us the original Ice Girls, the Blog Box and Al Arbour coming out of retirement to coach one more game.

Today, they unveiled another addition in their long line of original, creative and controversial gimmicks. Although I imagine that this one will probably be much less controversial than the Blog Box. It comes to us from the ticketing gurus the Islanders employ.

The team is selling what they are calling a 'Victory Pack' ticket plan. It's four Wednesday night games, one of which features Sidney Crosby. What's different about this plan from the norm is that the final score of the games will impact how much bang the buyers of this plan will get for their buck. For each of the four games that the Islanders win, purchasers will receive 'free' tickets to future games.

Each time the Islanders win a game in the four-game Victory Plan package, you will get to come back and watch another select game - on us! For example if the Isles defeat the Sidney Crosby-led Pittsburgh Penguins on November 26, you get to return to the Nassau Coliseum on December 16 to see Alexander Ovechkin and the Washington Capitals for FREE.
The second game is advertised for free, but the Islanders did not post a price for the Victory Plan along with the article. Being the cynic that I am, I think there could be some extra charges. Either way, it's a very creative way to try and put butts in seats and props to the Islanders for that.
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